How long will it be until Nebraska football is a legitimate contender in college football?
I agree with a couple answers on here in that Nebraska no longer has advantages in strength and conditioning over everyone else, and that they no longer have a national rivalry with Oklahoma that has huge exposure to drive recruiting (though most schools don’t, including many that are better than Nebraska).
I think some context is in order: it’s worth noting that other northern schools with tradition comparable or better than Nebraska are also struggling, relative to their past. Notre Dame hasn’t won a big bowl game since 1993 or a national championship since 1988. Michigan hasn’t won a conference title since 2004 or a national championship since 1997 (same as Nebraska -they split the 97 title). Washington hasn’t won a Rose bowl since 2000 or a national championship since 1991, despite the fact they are the 2nd most traditional power in a league that has been weakening for awhile. Even Penn State, good as they are, isn’t the same as when they were an independent or early in their Big ten years (though they’re getting better). For non-southern schools, only Ohio State is improved over the last 20 years vs previous 20. Why? The profound in-state talent from which they can recruit their players.
In an age where everyone is on TV and lots of TV dollars flow in to every power 5 program, it is difficult to grab the best players from another state, as most schools can close the borders to outsiders and recruit the best in-state talent, without conceding anything regarding TV or resources. I.e. – you’re now more at the mercy of what your state can produce. Look at the number of SEC schools, in the most talent-rich area of the country, that have had runs as good or better than Nebraska’s best teams in the last twenty years. And these schools, such as So Carolina, Miss State, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Missouri, don’t even have the historical cache Nebraska does, and no past or current rivalry that remotely compares to what NU-OU was, or the current rivalries of today. But it doesn’t matter. You can be on TV just as easy in Starkville as in Lincoln, and if you’re from MS, it’ll be much more easy for you to be a Bulldog than a Cornhusker. And national recruiters like Notre Dame fare worse than before when they’re competing with every p5 school in a state for a recruit.
You have to maximize in-state recruiting, and if possible get a few neighboring states’ best players as well. Nebraska has faltered here recently, losing in-state guys to Iowa as well as to FCS powerhouses in the Dakotas. In many cases, these players were not sought after in high school, but this has been happening frequently enough, and Nebraska has had roster attrition frequently enough, particularly with far flung players, that some re-examination must be in order. And Nebraska, which has frequently relied on some of the best players in Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri for scholarship recruits, may be in the wrong league to even begin building this back up. A league move shouldn’t permanently wreck a program, but Nebraska still doesn’t seem to know where to get its guys in the Big Ten now that it no longer shares a league with many neighbors.
What should Nebraska do? 4 modest proposals come to mind.
1. Start trading a few out of state 3 stars from FL, GA, and AL for some not quite 3 stars from NE. It would reduce roster attrition and may help spur some growth in the state high schools for football. University of Iowa can get Iowa and Nebraska walk ons and low scholarship recruits to the NFL, why can’t Nebraska? Well, Iowa’s roster is traditionally more local, they’re increasing their odds by having more local guys. Of course their ceiling is not what Nebraskans want, but they are better than Nebraska now. Trying to recruit a higher class of walk-on would help, too – perhaps improved funding to reduce in-state tuition for those good enough to get a scholarship to USD, NDSU, or
2. A recruiting message aimed to pierce a specific part of the SEC. Nebraska (or Iowa and Wisconsin for that matter) can roll into the western and northern part of SEC country and say, “what has 20 years of SEC ties and SEC money gotten MSU, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Missouri? No league titles, infrequent major bowl wins (if any), infrequent division titles, and their brains beat in by Alabama and LSU and occasionally Florida annually. Nebraska has won 4 division titles since 2006 and played several times on New Year’s Day as well. Join forces with other good players from these states, concentrate at our school, and get us to the league title that you will, never, ever, ever win at MSU, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Arkansas.” MSU and Ole Miss appear to be going through flux and the state of MS is loaded with talent -the time is now. It also wouldn’t hurt to figure out a way to start prying open Missouri – currently an SEC school – in the same way, as the Tigers are also going through flux. Nebraska can’t get the best player in Alabama or Florida out of the state. It can out of Mississippi and Missouri or Arkansas. And should try.
3. Follow Oregon’s example and build a new program from scratch. This will be hard, due to tradition, but it could provide a brand new program identity to which Nebraska can recruit that is not tethered to a past weighing down current players. Scott Frost’s offensive innovations are something that would fit this pattern, but Nebraska should consider things such as facilities with an eye toward future gains vs past trophies (which should be put in a museum), multiple uniform combinations, and possibly even a new state-of-the art stadium a generation from now. Kids don’t care about anyone’s historical success. They want to play, look cool doing it, and look like they’re doing things on the cutting edge.
4. Finally, Nebraska needs consistency. It has been bad enough to have 5 coaches in twenty years. It has had 5 AD’s too!! How can Nebraska improve when it doesn’t even know what the vision for the program is? Contrast this with Wisconsin, which has had 3 coaches since Barry Alvarez but knows exactly what it should be and which coaches it should hire, and the coaches know the systems they can employ in such a cold-weather program. Coaches also know where to recruit players to fit the Wisconsin system. In this vein, Nebraska should consider sticking with Frost and AD Moos through the duration of their contracts, even he is .500 for the first several years.
Of course the answers for NU aren’t simple. And that’s why I do think it may be impossible for Nebraska to be what it once was. Nebraska wasn’t a function of playing in a weak league. Nebraska achieved just like Michigan and Notre Dame once did, but now struggles as they have (though a bit more now). Nebraska needs to exploit the advantages it can, and forget about the ones they can no longer exploit.
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