How many points should Everton be aiming for before the next international break? The writers of ECHO have spoken.
Everton return from the first international break of the new season still searching for their first Premier League victory of 2023/24.
But how many more points should the Blues realistically expect before the Premier League’s next weekend off in mid-October?
Everton are already playing catch-up after losing two very winnable home games against Fulham and Wolverhampton Wanderers, but all is not (yet) as bleak as some may imply.
The Blues actually performed well in both of those games and should have done much better given the golden opportunities they created, particularly against former boss Marco Silva’s side on the first day. Of course, they didn’t, and it was heartbreaking for their devoted but long-suffering fans, but there were actual mitigating factors.
Whether we like it or not, it must be remembered that Everton were also beaten in these two equivalent fixtures last season, and the same goes for Aston Villa away, although, to be fair, there can be no excuses for the shambolic manner in which they were torn apart in the West Midlands in their first away game at a ground where they’ll return later this month for a Carabao Cup tie. The Blues lacked a genuine focal point in both of their home meetings, but that has now been solved with the arrival of Beto, who can now hopefully become a genuine like-for-like option to Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Dwight McNeil, last season’s leading scorer as well as one of the major supply lines of crosses to the centre-forward, was also absent, having only appeared as a second-half replacement against Sheffield United in his first outing of the season. His return to full fitness, along with that of fellow wideman and new recruit Jack Harrison, cannot come soon enough.
As a result, there are more reasons to be upbeat ahead of Everton’s return to play against an Arsenal side that they defeated in Sean Dyche’s first game in charge back in February. Even if they are unable to duplicate that feat against Mikel Arteta’s side, anyone who believes that an eighth change in the dugout in seven years under Farhad Moshiri is part of the problem rather than the answer in these tough times is part of the problem.
Dyche, unlike predecessor Frank Lampard, is a proven operator in getting teams on a relative shoestring budget to punch above their weight in the Premier League and deserves time to continue working on the improvements he brought in last season, but he knows he needs to start picking up points, as do all managers. Everton has done well at home against Arsenal in recent years, but you can’t expect to beat them, and, as harsh as it may sound, the same goes for Brentford away after that.
The Blues then have two home games against Luton Town and Bournemouth, both of which they should win. So, seven points before the next international break is ‘acceptable’?
If we put an optimistic spin on Everton’s season thus far, they should have seven points from their opening four games.
As a result, even with key players being sold off and glaring faults in the club being revealed by some lesser opponents, it hasn’t been too difficult to maintain some perspective in these early weeks.
However, after the first international break of the 2023-24 season, tangibles will begin to matter. Points are essential. They might not be easy to come by at first. Despite their poor record at Goodison Park, Arsenal are heavy favorites for Sunday’s encounter and will be bolstered by nearly £200 million in summer purchases when compared to the group that lost to the Blues in February.
Brentford are also a difficult team to stop, especially on their home turf and when considering Everton’s road record. It means that the two home games against Luton Town and Bournemouth before the next international break are likely to be must-wins.
Six points from those, and the Blues should be in the lower half of the table by mid-October, when international football resumes. Anything less will almost certainly land them in the bottom three, with a trip to Anfield on the horizon.
It’s a critical time for manager Sean Dyche. Points in his next two games would be nice, but wins in his next two home games are essential.
If they do not arrive, the pressure on the head coach will be enormous, regardless of the challenging conditions under which he is working on Merseyside.
Joe Thomas’ winless streak must end by the beginning of October.
The next four games will have a significant impact on the narrative around Everton heading into the winter. There is considerable validity for Sean Dyche’s favourable assessment of the team’s efforts thus far, and based on the displays and chances produced, Everton could have taken nine points from Fulham, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Sheffield United.
They could have had zero, but it took a stoppage time double save from Jordan Pickford to save Sheffield United from stealing a late win at Bramall Lane.
It is difficult to evaluate the season thus far, but the defeat at Aston Villa was troubling, and having failed to overcome three opponents that may be in the bottom half of the table this season, there must be some concern about how Everton will perform against better clubs in the future. That is the issue for the next two weeks.
The Blues have a decent recent home record against Arsenal, but it will be a challenging game, as will the trip to Brentford. If Everton can come away from those games with two points, it will provide a firm foundation for the coming months. Then there’s the Goodison Park double header against Luton Town and Bournemouth. Luton is a must-win for any team aiming to stay in the Premier League, and Everton will not be able to allow a winless streak to extend beyond that game if they do not beat Arsenal and Brentford. The Blues must also defeat Bournemouth. Those are the types of games that a team seeking to compete in this league must win, especially after failing to do so against Fulham and Wolves.
Six points from the last two games before the break are therefore necessary. It would be a huge stride forward if they could avoid defeats against Arsenal and Brentford. I think six is the minimum Everton can afford to obtain, and seven would be ‘decent’.
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