Russell Wilson doesn’t look like prime Peyton Manning, so the Denver Broncos should get rid of him. That is the consensus narrative for most analysts and fans after last week’s loss to the Houston Texans. After one bad game, the opinion is that the team should get a cheaper option.

This comes from the prevailing opinion that NFL teams have to build around a rookie quarterback with a cost-controlled contract in order to get to the Super Bowl. There’s no originality any longer. This mantra is repeated over and over.

However, the facts point to there being more than one way to build a championship-caliber team and that having a cost-controlled rookie leading the offense rarely leads to a Super Bowl appearance.

First, let’s dismiss the idea of a ‘cheaper’ quarterback and stick to a cost-controlled rookie contract. There are plenty of inexpensive quarterbacks out there, but they are cheap for a reason. Bringing in a quarterback who isn’t good but is cheap wouldn’t change the Broncos’ fortunes.

We can explore the success rate of building around a cost-controlled rookie quarterback. Over the last decade, many teams have had the opportunity to use this tactic.

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From 2013-20, 17 quarterbacks have been selected in the top 15 of the NFL draft. Only two have made it to the Super Bowl as the starter for their team.

Furthermore, in the last 10 seasons, only five teams have gone to the Super Bowl with a first-round drafted quarterback on his rookie contract. Two of them were the Kansas City Chiefs, meaning this tactic has only worked for three other teams.

Those three other teams did not win the Super Bowl. Interestingly, five teams have also reached the Super Bowl using a free agent or a trade to get the quarterback that took them to the big game. Three of them won the big game. Two different tactics with nearly the same result.