Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Lightning vs. Islanders Tonight: No Bolts Can Fix Sorokin
Although Ilya Sorokin is considered to be one of the best netminders in the world, his performance this season hasn’t lived up to his reputation. Nevertheless, our NHL selections think Sorokin is in a great position against a Tampa Bay team that is losing ground.
Under new head coach Patrick Roy, the New York Islanders are 2-2-1. Tonight, they will play the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second leg of a back-to-back road series.
After suffering a 3-1 loss to the Rangers the previous evening, Tampa is probably going to use backup goalie Jonas Johansson for the trip to Long Island. Just six of the Isles’ 25 games played in regulation at UBS Arena have been lost, demonstrating their fierce competitiveness at home. Regretfully, New York has lost two more games in a shootout and five more in overtime.
However, New York is trading as a home favorite in the NHL odds, despite the Bolts being in a potentially difficult schedule spot and having recently suffered two straight losses.
Here are my free NHL predictions for Thursday, February 8th’s Lightning vs. Islanders game.
Predictions for Lightning vs. Islanders
The New York Islanders, with a 27th-ranked 46.3 Corsi, have given up the second-most shots (34.4) and attempts (69.3) per 60 minutes this season. percentage in a 5-on-5 match. Furthermore, even though new bench boss Patrick Roy has given us some glimpses, the new coach bump is only so strong. After all, on Monday the Isles gave up 36 shots to the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Although I think the Islanders will win at home, I wasn’t prepared for the Tampa Bay Lightning to lose three games in a row after the All-Star break. I wish I had a better sense for this game. Besides, it’s hard to call the drive from Manhattan to Elmont travel, even though these two locations are on the same road.
Thus, I’ll turn to Ilya Sorokin and his total of 27.5 saves. In Monday’s victory over the Maple Leafs, the perennial Vezina Trophy contender stopped 34 of 36 shots, and I expect him to keep playing well. Sorokin had a.909 SV% and 0.02 goals saved above average per 60 minutes going into Monday’s game; those are significantly lower than his 0.59 and.924 percentages from the previous two years.
Since Tampa Bay only managed 19 shots in their 3-1 loss to the New York Rangers on Wednesday, the focus of tonight’s game will be on pucks on goal. It’s also the ideal conditions for Sorokin’s statistical correction to proceed.
In 5-on-5 road play, Tampa Bay is ranked 24th in goals, 22nd in expected goals per 60 minutes, and third last in goals against. Add backup Jonas Johansson, who is probably going to start and has a deflating amount of confidence. With 894 SV% and 3.34 GAA for the campaign, New York has the game all to themselves.
As previously noted, the Islanders have demonstrated extreme competitiveness at UBS Arena. My best guess is also for New York to win.
Additionally, I like the +200 odds offered by bet365 because DraftKings is offering this same-game parlay for only +192. Even though there may only be a 3% positive expected value difference, an edge is still an edge, right?
Moneyline for Lightning vs. Islanders and Over/Under analysis
Since the Islanders opened as a -120 favorite through bet365 on Wednesday afternoon, there has been steady movement to the New York side of this moneyline. With Tampa Bay playing last night, the game was off to a rout and reopened with the Islanders down -130. As of Thursday, New York is trading as a -140 home favorite.
Additionally, the Over at bet365 has consistently seen action on the total. From 6.0 to 6.5, it has moved, and the 6.5 is currently trading at -110 on both sides. With just four goals scored overall on Wednesday, Tampa Bay played to the Under, but the Lightning had won their previous three games 6-3. It’s interesting to note that in four of the last five Islanders games, the Under has scored.
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