Recent history suggests that being the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference doesn’t translate to postseason success. In the last 11 seasons, the top seed in the East has advanced to the NBA finals only once: the 2015-16 Cavaliers, who ended up winning the championship.
Last season, the top-seeded Bucks ran into Jimmy Butler and the Heat in the first round. We all remember how that played out. A year before that, No. 1 seed Miami lost to Boston in an epic seven-game series. And in the 2021 playoffs, the top-seeded Sixers blew a 3-1 lead to the Hawks in the second round.
The last two champions to represent the East — the 2018-19 Raptors and 2021-21 Bucks — were not even among top three betting favorites entering the playoffs let alone No. 1 seeds.
Should these numbers worry the Celtic faithful?
Boston (51-14) is on pace for a 65-win season with the fifth-largest points differential in NBA history. Its fanbase has every reason to be confident.
That said, 65-win teams aren’t guaranteed championships, either. In fact, only two of the last five such teams — 2014-15 Warriors and 2016-17 Warriors — hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
It’s been a different trend out West where the top seed has advanced to the finals eight out of the last 11 years. The 2017-18 Rockets, the 2020-21 Jazz and the 2021-22 Suns were the only top seeds not to make the finals.
As such, the defending champions Nuggets are a safer bet to win it all than the Celtics. They have in their ranks the ultimate unguardable weapon i.e. Nikola Jokic, the blueprint to win a title and even a 2-0 regular season series win over the C’s.
The oddsmakers are picking the Celtics (+220) over the Nuggets (+450) to win it all. Yet, recent history doesn’t bode well for Boston’s chances.
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