Before Game 5, the Mavericks outlined three things that will prevent them from falling asleep.

Game 5 between the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers is upon us. Queue Mozart’s “Lacrimosa,” because it’s about to get really dramatic in here.

The way the series has built to this first dramatic crescendo tied two games apiece with home-court advantage now swinging back in LA’s favor, feels like we may be in for something wonderful on Wednesday. The Clippers play host in the late game at Crypto.com Arena, with tipoff scheduled for 9 p.m. CST on TNT, with local coverage on TXA21 as well.

We don’t have to tell you how important getting a win in Game 5 of a seven-game series is when it’s tied 2-2. These kinds of numbers are drilled into the minds of NBA fans every year when the playoffs roll around. The winner of Game 5 in those scenarios has gone on to win the series 82.8% of the time (164-34 as of 2018).

So with the most important game of the season just one sleep away (or no sleeps depending on when you read this), what do the Mavs need to do to take that most commanding of series leads?

Here are three things:

Hold the Clippers to fewer than 15 3-pointers

The Clippers hit exactly 18 3-pointers in each of their series wins in Games 1 and 4 and shot a combined 36-of-65 (55%) from distance in those two games. They kept the Mavs at arm’s length with superior shooting in both wins, despite the varying game script in each of those games, outscoring Dallas by 24 from the 3-point line in Game 1 and by 21 in Game 4.

The Mavericks need to aim to limit the damage and hold the Clippers to fewer than 15 this time around. And honestly, this might be due to happen based on simple shooting variance, before any defensive adjustments the Mavericks may or may not make heading into Game 5. A lot was made in the immediate aftermath of Game 4 about the Clippers shooting an eye-popping 6-of-6 on “well-contested” 3-point attempts in that win, and a lot has been made in general as the series has progressed about James Harden and Paul George’s ability to channel the best versions of themselves in games without star forward Kawhi Leonard.

Harden is shooting 17-of-34 (50%) from 3-point range in the series and 10-of-16 in the Clippers’ two wins. The Harden-George combo has combined to go 21-of-38 from deep in those two wins. Being assertive volume shooters is their only option with Leonard out of the lineup, and both have been more than happy to oblige thus far.

Could one or both be due for an off-shooting night? Sure, but they’ve both already had one, trading bad shooting performances in each of the Dallas wins in Games 2 and 3. Dallas has in general continued to defend well in this series, so there may not be an obvious adjustment to make in terms of running guys off the 3-point line harder. You can get into trouble that way, too. The point is to make sure everything the Clippers get in Game 5 is contested and trust that results on the offensive end will follow.

Get back to business in the paint

In Game 3, the Mavs dominated the paint on their way to 13 dunks and a 52-36 points-in-the-paint advantage in the 96-93 win that briefly gave Dallas a 2-1 series lead. Ten of those dunks came in the first half, marking just the second time in the last 25 years that any team has racked up that many dunks in a half in any playoff game.

Daniel Gafford blocked three shots, and Dereck Lively II blocked two more as the Mavericks clogged up the lane and made things harder than ever on the Clippers’ offense. But in Game 4, Los Angeles erased that advantage, outscoring the Mavs 46-42 in the paint. The lob threat was nearly non-existent for the Mavericks in Sunday’s loss. That needs to change.

Can Luka break out despite the sprained knee?

Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

The knee injury Luka Dončić has been playing through recently was given a name on Tuesday, and it’s officially a sprained right knee, ESPN reported. He was reportedly able to do “everything” at Tuesday’s practice and is officially designated as probable on the team’s injury report.

The hobbled superstar is averaging 29.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists in the series but is shooting just 38.6% from the field and a dreadful 26.5% on 3-point attempts through four games. He played 45 minutes in the Game 4 loss despite being slowed at times throughout the proceedings. It’s plain to see — the knee stiffness is affecting his mobility on both ends of the floor.

“It’s obviously hurting, but it’s not an excuse, man,” Dončić told ESPN.

Despite all that, don’t put it past Dončić to break out in a big way in the biggest moments of this series. He’s no stranger to big playoff moments, both in general and specifically against these Clippers. He’s been able to rise above injury and illness several times before in his career. If he can provide one inspirational “flu game” or “Paul Pierce materializes from thin air” moment in the final three games, something tells me the rest of the squad can lift him up for the fourth and final necessary win to clinch the series.

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