May is a fascinating month in baseball. Patterns have formed, but some will prove fleeting. Others will end up foreshadowing for what lies ahead in the 2024 MLB season.
We’ll try to sort out some of that uncertainty by asking two simple questions: First, what did we expect from each team? Second, what has happened to each team … so far. Then, we’ll do our best to provide some clarification for 30 team portraits that are still very much out of focus.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Win average: 104.3 (Last: 100.0, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.7% (Last: 96.4%)
Champions: 29.3% (Last 22.3%)
Expected: To be one of baseball’s two best teams.
So far: The Dodgers are one of baseball’s two best teams.
There is nothing to indicate that the Dodgers are not what we thought they’d be. Freddie Freeman’s power bat has started slow. The L.A. rotation remains injury-riddled, even as Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have been an elite one-two. Dave Roberts has had to get creative with his late-inning bullpen at times. Through it all, the Dodgers remain on a 100-win pace and own a run differential that suggests they are even better than that. These little dings in the armor can all be smoothed out, suggesting that the best is yet to come. That is a scary thought.
2. Atlanta Braves
Win average: 102.3 (Last: 99.7, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 96.3%)
Champions: 22.1% (Last 21.7%)
How we ranked the teams
This Stock Watch uses a consensus projection based on rest-of-season team forecasts from my system, Fangraphs, ClayDavenport.com and Baseball Prospectus, as well as over/unders from ESPN BET. These were used to create a baseline win expectation which was then used as the basis for 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2024 schedule, yielding our right-now win forecasts and postseason probabilities.
The changes are measured by the difference in simulated wins between this iteration of Stock Watch and our last version, which was our final preseason glance.
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.
Expected: To be one of baseball’s two best teams.
So far: The Braves are probably one of baseball’s two best teams.
The Braves and Dodgers entered their showdown last weekend positioned as expected. Of the numerous injuries we’ve seen so far, Atlanta losing Spencer Strider for the season is perhaps the biggest gut punch of them all. Yet the Braves have chugged along with plenty of momentum so far with offseason acquisitions Reynaldo Lopez and Chris Sale coming up big for the rotation. As with L.A., there are reasons to believe we haven’t seen Atlanta’s best, as Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley have all fallen well short of projection. That is not likely to last for any of them.
3. New York Yankees
Win average: 95.0 (Last: 88.8, 6th)
In the playoffs: 89.3% (Last: 63.6%)
Champions: 10.4% (Last 4.5%)
Expected: A return to contention.
So far: A return to contention.
As ever, the Yankees have been dogged by key injuries. Nevertheless, New York is off to a powerful start on the strength of Juan Soto’s MVP turn, Anthony Volpe’s sophomore leap and a collectively airtight bullpen. Soto has been the headliner and is on the short list of early front-runners in the American League MVP race. He looks like someone born to don pinstripes, given the way he has mashed and the response he has gotten in the Bronx. Still, the Yankees’ bag has been mixed, with a so-so performance from the Gerrit Cole-less rotation, an often maddening offense and Aaron Judge’s tepid start.
4. Baltimore Orioles
Win average: 94.2 (Last: 91.4, 4th)
In the playoffs: 87.5% (Last: 74.8%)
Champions: 8.5% (Last 7.5%)
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